Modelling fails to stall key fisheries collapse

The bleak news was first presented by Franz Fischler, the European fisheries commissioner to a meeting of Irish fishermen in Dublin last month: closure of fisheries around Ireland, Britain and other areas of the north-east Atlantic for cod and related species were likely to be the last chance for any sort of recovery and sustainable future for fishing for these species. Scientists from the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) advised the European Commission and national governments that all fisheries that target cod in the North Sea and other areas of the north-east Atlantic should be closed. The chance of ‘collapse must be seriously considered’, the scientists advised. Cod are also caught as by-catch in mixed fisheries such as haddock, whiting, flatfish, shrimp and prawn fisheries. ICES is recommending that these fisheries should also be closed unless they can demonstrate that they are not causing a cod by-catch. The council’s advisory committee on fisheries management reviews in total 135 fish and shellfish stocks. For the past 17 years the amount of cod reproducing in this area is calculated to be below the ‘biomass precautionary reference point,’ they said. But even these closures might not be enough to save the cod industry. The ICES report admits that current cod populations are ‘so far below historic sizes that both the biological dynamics of the stock and the operations of the fisheries are unknown’. Cod stocks in the Irish Sea remain ‘outside of safe biological limits’, the report says and the authors do not consider historic experience and data reliable for medium-term forecasts of fish population dynamics under various rebuilding scenarios. ICES is the independent, intergovernmental, scientific body which is the main provider of scientific advice on fisheries and environmental issues in the northeast Atlantic to national governments and regulatory commissions. David Griffith, general secretary of ICES, said: ‘We have had to resort to recommending complete closure of these fisheries as the only way of giving these depleted stocks a period of time to recover, and hopefully, to return to their former productive state’. Cod stocks in several areas have been in decline for a number of years and are now at, or near, their lowest recorded levels. ‘Some attempts have been made to reduce fishing pressure on these stocks but these actions have not given the fish enough opportunity to rebuild’, the report says. As part of an emergency EU-led recovery plan, a large part of the North Sea was closed for cod fishing for 10 weeks in the spring of 2001 to protect juvenile cod. The total allowable catch was set at about half the 2000 quota, and technical measures to monitor the catch were put in place. But North Sea cod have shown no sign of recovery in population size. ICES has recommended that the fishery closures should be used alongside other measures such as recently agreed increases in minimum mesh sizes to promote the recovery of these stock until there is clear evidence that they are in a more favorable condition. The EU has recently proposed a rebuilding plan for the North Sea cod stock biomass by 30% per year. But ICES scientists are advising the commission that does not go far enough and would mean the recovery of that stock could take 8–12 years. And the lessons from other fisheries are gloomy. When John Cabot sailed to Newfoundland from Bristol more than 500 years ago he found cod so plentiful that sailors could pull them up in baskets. At the height of the Newfoundland fishery in 1968, more than 40,000 people were employed catching and processing nearly 810,000 tonnes of cod. By 1992 the species had been so depleted that Canada’s government suspended fishing in the area, including the famed Grand Banks. But the fisheries has not bounced back as many researchers hoped. The number of young cod dying in waters off the coast of Nova Scotia has more than doubled over the past decade. Marine biologists suspect cooler water temperatures, natural predators and ultraviolet radiation might be affecting the vulnerable species, but they can’t pinpoint definitive causes. Researchers estimate that the death rate of young cod in waters east of Halifax to the Grand Banks and north to the coast of Labrador reached 50%, up from an annual average of 15–20%. At the time scientists suspected cod was being fished to near extinction and needed a reprieve to recover. But 10 years after the suspension, the stocks are still low and scientists say they could be facing a new, more elusive problem. ‘There is clear evidence from worldwide studies of changes in community structure in marine ecosystems as a result of fishing pressure. Off the coast of British Columbia reduction in cod stocks is believed to have led to an increase in lobster survival, which caused an increase in fishing effort for lobsters. As these stocks then declined sea urchin survival improved leading to an explosion in their numbers,’ a new report for Features